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Generative AI and Jobs: A global analysis of potential effects on job quantity and quality

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It also boasts that its work is “future-proof,” as many of the websites in its portfolio haven’t been updated for five years. Considering the average website life span is just two years and seven months, that’s some impressive longevity. Naturally, you can also opt for several other services from Clay, including branding, content and development. SmartSites doesn’t offer ongoing support in its initial design packages, but it is a service you can add on after the fact if you need help. And if you need more assistance, SmartSites also offers logo and graphic design, content writing services and SEO marketing, all of which can help rocket your site to the top of search engine results pages (SERPs).

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Generating a uniform set of tasks across all occupations provides some analytical benefits. We stress that the primary value of this analysis is not the precise estimates, but rather the insights that the overall distribution of such scores provides about the nature of possible changes. Such insights can encourage governments and social partners to proactively design policies that support orderly, fair, and consultative transitions, rather than dealing with change in a reactive manner. Moreover, the likely ramifications on job quality might be of greater consequence than the quantitative impacts, both with respect to the new jobs created because of the technology, but also the potential effects on work intensity and autonomy when the technology is integrated into the workplace. For this reason, we also emphasize the need for social dialogue and regulation to support quality employment.

2. Augmentation vs Automation: global estimate

It shows that for the manager category, most occupations have a task-level score distribution somewhere on both sides of the medium exposure line of 0.5, with more tasks falling into low-level exposure. In contrast, for clerical support workers, many occupations have an entire task distribution that falls to the right of the medium exposure threshold of 0.5. As the next step, we calculate the share of tasks with high and medium exposure in each ISCO 1-digit grouping. Figure 2 reveals in stark terms the degree of exposure among clerical support workers, among whom some 24 per cent of all tasks fall into the highly exposed category. If we also account for tasks with medium-level exposure (58 per cent of all tasks), a full 82 per cent of clerical job tasks are exposed at an above-average level. This stands in contrast to the other occupational groups, in which the highest share of highly exposed tasks oscillates between 1 and 4 per cent, and where the medium-exposed tasks do not exceed 25 percent.7 Even assuming large margins of error, the result is still striking.

1. ISCO data on occupations and tasks

In other words, wealthier countries are likely to face both more disruptive effects in the technological transition and higher net gains from the process. The second approach is to focus on occupational structures, with the idea of estimating the automation potential of tasks or skills that make up a given job. The advantage of this method is that such occupational classifications can easily be linked to official labour market statistics, which is of particular importance for understanding global, regional and income-based differentials. This strand of literature is rich, but frequently misunderstood, especially when it comes to communicating its findings to the public, as media interpretations tend to blur the distinction between automation potential and actual deployment in the workplace. For example, Frey and Osborne’s (2013, 2017) influential study has been cited over 12,000 times, often for different types of doomsday pronouncements, even though the authors were clear about the distinction between potential and predicted effects. This study presents a global analysis of the potential exposure of occupations and tasks to Generative AI, and specifically to Generative Pre-Trained Transformers (GPTs), and the possible implications of such exposure for job quantity and quality.

In addition, the broad category of managers, which for the most part falls underneath the 0.5 cut-off, nonetheless approximates the line of medium exposure. The results for service and sales workers are more mixed, with some occupations surpassing the threshold but most others falling below. Plant and machine operators and assemblers, elementary occupations, craft and related trades workers and skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers have more limited exposure. The current ISCO-08 relies on a hierarchical structure, reflected in a system of digits.

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Twenty years ago, there were no social media managers, thirty years ago there were few web designers, and no amount of data modelling would have rendered a priori predictions concerning a vast array of other occupations that have emerged in the past decades. As demonstrated by Autor et al. (2022), some 60 per cent of employment in 2018 in the United States was in jobs that did not exist in the 1940s. The analysis is based on 4-digit occupational classifications and their corresponding tasks in the ISCO-08 standard.

website design jobs

It gives you the choice of creating a custom e-commerce design or using platforms such as Shopify , WooCommerce, Adobe Commerce or BigCommerce. First, your website has to be relatively simple—The Free Website Guys doesn’t create advanced functionalities for free. You’ll also need to host your site on WordPress and use one of the company’s preferred web hosting companies. If your company is looking for a beautifully designed, responsive website, DD.NYC should be your choice.

Having such voice relies in turn on the opportunities for worker participation and dialogue. Studies on Europe have shown that it is the countries with stronger and more cooperative forms of workplace consultation, essentially the Nordic countries, followed by Germany, where workers are more open to technological adoption at the workplace. Yet even in Denmark, focus group discussions with workers on digital integration reveal a desire for greater attention to the implementation and organization of technology at the workplace so as to better meet the needs of end users (Refslund and Borello, 2023). Consultation and negotiation between employers and workers is critical for managing the transition process as it encourages redeployment and training over job loss. The ILO’s Employment Protection Convention (No. 158, 1982) includes provisions on the termination of employment for technological reasons.

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While GPT specifically refers to models developed by OpenAI (GPT-1, 2, 3 and 4), this type of architecture is used by many more language models already available commercially. The launch of ChatGPT on 30 November 2022 made GPTs more popular among the public, as it made it possible for individuals with no programming knowledge to interact with GPT-3 (and eventually GPT-4) through a chatbot function with a human-like tone. For research purposes and more complex applications, such language models are typically more powerful when used through an Application Programming Interface (API). An API is a developer access point that relies on a query-response protocol with the use of programming software. In our case, we rely on a Python script based on OpenAI library, designed to connect to GPT-4 model, provide a fine-tuned prompt and receive a response, which is subsequently stored in a database on our server.

We observe that some functionalities of the model could potentially be used to support specialized discussions on updating the standard classifications. For example, semantic clustering and content summarization could be used to extract core tasks from a multitude of currently unprocessed country-level inputs, which is a tedious and overwhelming task for humans. This obviously has to do with its training data, both in terms of originally ingested textual sources and further human-based fine-tuning of the model.

We are particularly grateful to Bálint Náfrádi and Sergei Soares for their comments on the content and their independent review of our calculations. We thank Lara Badre, who provided a clean mapping of different ISCO levels to detailed tasks as well as a mapping of over 7,500 job titles found in Labour Force Surveys (LFS) to ISCO 4-digit. Lara also gave us numerous useful suggestions regarding the ISCO system and conducted some spot checks of the predicted job definitions and tasks. Another source of policy intervention is to ensure quality of the new jobs created as a result of technological change.

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